Not at War, No Longer at Peace: Germany and Europe Confront a Wave of Drone Incidents

In recent times, Europe, especially Germany, has experienced multiple drone incidents. On August 4th, 2026, German authorities discovered an explosives-armed drone at Leipzig/Halle Airport near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft. The drone contained military-grade explosives and a detonator, but investigators concluded that the detonator apparently malfunctioned. Ten days later, a second unidentified object/drone was involved in a separate incident in which a cargo aircraft sustained minor damage after an apparent collision. US officials have reported 18 separate drone incidents disrupting Leipzig airspace.

Germany is careful about calling the drone incidents an act of war, instead saying they are targets of hybrid warfare. It is treating the Leipzig incident primarily as a criminal, security and hybrid warfare matter.

Nonetheless, in 2025, Chancellor Merz said “we are not at war but we are no longer at peace either.” His response after the most recent incident was to close the last Russian consulate in Germany. It also raised the threat warning from general to high. EU President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement, “we stand in full solidarity with Germany, and if the intention was to make us think twice about supporting Ukraine, I can tell you it has only strengthened my resolve. Intimidation will not work.”

Germany is not the only European nation which has experienced these incidents. On September 10, 2025, Poland reported 19 Russian drone incursions into its airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine. Poland shot down several of the drones and requested NATO Article 4, which calls for consultations between allies if a NATO member believes it is being threatened.

Estonia has also reported that Russia has invaded their airspace. In September 2025, three Russian MiG-31 fighter aircraft violated Estonian airspace. Estonia also requested NATO Article 4 consultations.

NATO shot down a drone which entered Lithuanian airspace. Their National Crisis Management Center has reported that the drone most likely came from Belarus, which is an ally of Russia.

Britain has tracked Russian submarines operating around the United Kingdom and through the English Channel.

Many experts believe that Russia's action stems from the support provided to Ukraine by these nations. German, European and U.S. officials have assessed that disrupting Western support for Ukraine and intimidating European governments are among the possible objectives of Russia's broader hybrid campaign.

Germany must also deal with the political consequences of its responses. AfD, which just won a huge victory in Saxony-Anhalt, is pushing Chancellor Merz to change policy when it comes to Ukraine. AfD Bundestag foreign-policy spokesman Markus Frohnmaier also argued that Germany should not attribute the Leipzig incident to Russia before the investigation was complete and criticized the government's approach to Ukraine. The AfD has also called for ending German support for Ukraine and restoring closer relations with Moscow.

While most attribute the drone incursions to Russia, some, such as historian Ulrike Guerot, who associates with BSW, also known as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, in an interview within the Hassan Unal Strategic Compass podcast, tried to dismiss Russia as the perpetrator of the drone attacks, saying “it's not even denied by the official press there was no killed no blast, no nothing. It was just a harmless drone on the airport of Leipzig, no proof whatsoever that it really came from Russia.”

While 56% of Germans see Russia as a threat to its security, it is unclear how Germans in general feel about his reaction to the drone incursion in Leipzig. How this will ultimately play out remains to be seen. Unfortunately, if the response of Germany and other nations who have incurred drone attacks remains the same, what is called hybrid warfare will only continue and may escalate.